Gold Price Resources

[VIDEO] Gold Price Update, Nov 15, 2019

Gold Price – Breakdown, or Another Leg Higher?

Picking up from last week’s video, I wanted to do a deep dive into gold, particularly because there is a diversity of opinions regarding whether we break down from here or we make another leg higher. In this video, I address a recent chart from JC Parets at All Star Charts and my opinion regarding his analysis in the short term.

The big question is whether gold has completed a fifth wave from the $1170 low (setting up and A-B-C correction), or whether the recent high was only wave 3, setting up a fifth wave higher. I am of the latter opinion.

As always, we would love to hear your feedback whether you agree or disagree.

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[VIDEO] Precious Metals Price Update, Nov 08, 2019

Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, and Copper

In this week’s video I take a look at the charts of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper and offer some thoughts on where I see prices moving next. In the case of gold, which has enjoyed a fantastic run-up from $1180 to $1570 this year (in the process breaking out of a six year base), price is pulling back and bull flagging at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Does it make a push down to $1400 to backtest the entire move? Will silver find support at $16.60 or are we moving lower? Will palladium continue its historic march hire, or will it meet resistance at future levels?

I discuss all this and more in today’s ten minute video. As always, whether you agree or disagree with my analysis, I would love to hear your feedback.

 

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$GC Gold Looking To Break Out of Bull Flag

RSI Turning Higher

The run-up in gold this morning has price action testing the downtrend line from the September high for the fourth time. Gold has been forming a bull flag for the past eight weeks, and $1505 also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the September high to the October low. Bulls want to see a breakout here; a failure would likely weigh heavily on price and take gold to new multi-month lows at downtrend support. RSI is supporting bullish action and is breaking out of its multi-week downtrend. The bond market is also acting bullishly after cooling off recently, as highlighted in my analysis of TLT, which is also supportive of higher gold prices. (more…)

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$TLT Retesting Breakout and Trend Line

A-B-C Correction At Key Level

After a brief hiatus from posting, I am just now getting back into the swing of things. On a personal note, my wife and I moved the family cross country from Texas to Idaho this past month, and that is an adventure I hope to never again repeat! But life is settling down a bit now . . .

The bond market is a good place to dust off the charts. I closely follow the iShares 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT, and my analysis continues to confirm the the correct application of the Fibonacci levels should begin with the secondary high from the 2016 peak, not the primary high. I share some prior thoughts here.

In doing so, we see $TLT honoring multiple Fibonacci levels of support and resistance throughout the last three years.

The breakout from the secondary high occurred in August and failed to close above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. It has since had an A-B-C correction and is retesting the break of that secondary high, which also coincides with rising channel support. The move from here will dictate the direction for the next few weeks/month. If support does not hold we should expect a retest of 134.50. Otherwise, a move back towards 150 seems very likely. My bias is to the bullish side.

A more granular look on the daily chart from the September high shows a measured move higher, with price retracing to the .618 level, pulling back to .382, pushing higher to .786, and now sitting at .236 (higher low from the September bottom).

TLT Daily Chart

 

Lastly, for anyone interested in learning more about how to apply Fibonacci levels, please join me this Sunday, October 13th, 2019 at 6pm EST for a webinar with my friends at Trendspider. A link to the webinar is here.

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Oil/Gold Ratio At Key Support

Oil Gold Ratio

Ratio Poised to Break to the Upside?

I have focused much of my time on the gold market recently because of the significance of the May breakout above $1365/oz, which had acted as key resistance for six years, and what the breakout is communicating about the forward trajectory of global markets. Gold is a risk-off asset; a flight to safety. Its tight correlation recently to the bond market reinforces how investors have been positioning away from risk assets. (more…)

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Gold and Bonds Highly Correlated

Flight to safety

Since 2015, the gold market and bond market (I use the $TLT 20-Year Bond ETF as a proxy for bond market performance) has been highly correlated. Both asset classes are viewed as a risk-off flight to safety. While past performance does not predict future performance, it is worth noting that many are viewing the bond market as a “bubble,” while simultaneously extolling the opinion that gold has entered a long-term secular bull market. I am personally allowing for the possibility that both have much higher long term upside, particularly when considering that US bonds offer the highest yields in the world. The best yielding sovereign bonds should continue to fetch a global bid. (more…)

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Expecting a Pullback in Gold

Gold Price Chart

Price a bit overextended

Gold has been on an epic run since early May, breaking out of a six-year base and launching almost $300 per ounce in the span of three months. Momentum favors the bulls, and the technicals look very strong over the long term. The backdrop of lower global yields and potential monetary stimulus are key fundamental drivers for the recent breakout. (more…)

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$PL Platinum Reversing Against Gold

Platinum Testing Downtrend Line With Potential Upside Breakout?

Platinum has underperformed gold since the ratio double bottomed in 2014. This has been especially frustrating for bulls as platinum’s cousin in the PGM group – palladium – has burst to all-time highs through the same period. (more…)

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Gold/Silver Ratio Signaling Key Reversal?

Test of 30-year highs rejected this week

After a quick mid-summer vacation I am finally getting back into the swing of things here. I’d like to kick off a few posts this week by highlighting the move in silver and specifically the gold/silver ratio.

As we have discussed at length in previous posts, the story this summer has been gold breaking out of a six-year base at $1365 and finally showing signs of strength after may false starts. What has made many gold bulls lingering skeptics has been the performance of silver, which is a smaller market with higher beta. Generally, when gold goes up, silver goes up much faster. When gold goes down, silver goes down much faster. (more…)

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$DXY US Dollar Pushes Back Into Wedge; Metals Sell Off

Interest Rate Cuts In Question?

The robust jobs report (224,000 new jobs vs. 160,000 projected) immediately changed the narrative of forthcoming Fed rate cuts, which had been the wind beneath the sales of the recent bull action in gold and bonds, and the weight pushing the dollar lower. The Bloomberg article referenced above summed it up: “Though the economy still faces trade tensions and below-target inflation, signs that economic growth remains intact may challenge calls for the Fed to cut rates this month — especially those for a half-point reduction.” (more…)

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Gold Looking to Hold $1400 Into Quarter Close

Gold-June-28Gold Entering Seasonally Strong Period At 6-Year Highs

The gold price close will be significant today, as gold will print end of day, end of week, end of month, and end of quarter closing prices. Gold bulls really want to see a close above $1400 (the 2014 peak). If gold holds here, the next target is a weekly close above $1435 (the high from the 2013 dead cat bounce), which should drive further buying activity into the gold market. A strong close today will be significant. (more…)

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Gold Breaks Through After 6 Years; Silver, Miners Confirming

Gold Price Chart

Gold Bugs Return from Exile

The long suffering (and diminishing) army of gold bugs, distraught over gold’s underperformance in the wake of asset inflation, government spending, and historically low (sometimes negative) interest rates over the last seven years, received a resounding message of hope yesterday when gold broke through long term resistance to top tick at 1397.70. Silver also broke through near term resistance of $15.15, and this morning gold miners also jumped higher and confirmed the breakout and retest of the long term down trend line from the 2011 highs. It all seems to be working at the moment for the precious metals sector. Let’s look at the charts. (more…)

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